Site Logo Site Logo

SportsLine's Golf Model Predicts Surprises at 2024 U.S. Open

Last Updated: July, 8 2024
SportsLine's Golf Model Predicts Surprises at 2024 U.S. Open

SportsLine's state-of-the-art golf model, which has correctly predicted the winners of 12 major championships, has simulated the 2024 U.S. Open 10,000 times and revealed its surprising picks.


The 2024 U.S. Open will take place from June 13-16 at Pinehurst Resort's iconic No. 2 course in North Carolina. Defending champion Xander Schauffele will try to win his second straight national championship, while world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler enters as the odds-on favorite at 4-1.



However, SportsLine's proven computer model sees some surprises in store. Despite being a two-time U.S. Open winner and 12-1 betting choice, Brooks Koepka is predicted to struggle and finish outside the top 10. Koepka has missed the cut in three of his last four major starts and fired over par in his lone previous round at Pinehurst No. 2.


Another surprise according to the model is Bryson DeChambeau. The big-hitting former U.S. Open champion is being offered at attractive 20-1 odds but has a much better chance to win than those long odds suggest. DeChambeau finished runner-up at this year's PGA Championship and his booming drives could be a big advantage on Pinehurst's lengthy layout.


In addition, the model has two other golfers priced at 20-1 or longer that could pull off surprise victories. SportsLine members can get exclusive insight into who those dark horses are.


Golf results have been very accurately predicted by SportsLine's algorithm. Twelve of the previous eighteen majors' winners, including Scheffler in the 2022 Masters and 2024 PGA Championship, were accurately predicted by the system. Those who have invested in the model's tournament recommendations have reaped substantial rewards.


With the 2024 U.S. Open approaching June 13-16, don't miss out on the full analysis and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine that's nailed 12 of the last 18 majors.


How to make picks for the 2024 U.S. Open


Check out the full analysis and projected leaderboard from SportsLine's proven golf model. It has nailed 12 of the last 18 major championships and can provide valuable insights.


Pay attention to recent form. Players who have been playing well and contending in tournaments recently are more likely to carry that over to the U.S. Open.


Consider course history and fit. Look at how players have performed previously at Pinehurst No. 2 or on similar courses. Yardage and greens could suit some players more.


Evaluate hidden factors like equipment, injury status or personal life that could influence performance for better or worse.


Look beyond top favorites. While odds leaders usually contend, balancing picks with undervalued sleepers increases chances of scoring an upset win.


Utilize multiple sources and stats models to get a variety of perspectives before finalizing picks. Corroborating different analysts helps identify consensus choices.


Be selective with longshot picks. Consider targeting proven performers at inflated odds versus complete unknowns or those vastly past their best form.


Who are the top dark horse candidates according to SportsLine's model?


Sam Burns (60-1 odds)

Consistently strong recent form with top 10s at Masters and PGA Championship

Steady play and pressure-handling ability make him a prime pick


Tony Finau (40-1 odds)

Has shown flashes of brilliance with a WGC win under his belt

Consistent form and course-adjusting ability give him a real chance


Matt Fitzpatrick (40-1 odds)

Game has steadily improved, including a 2022 U.S. Open win

Solid all-around skills and pressure resistance make him a threat


Will Zalatoris (20-1 odds)

One of the Tour's most consistent performers in majors

Strong ball-striking and pressure-proof game make him a top choice


Sepp Straka (70-1 odds)

Has been improving with multiple top 10s in golf's biggest events

Strong ball-striking and composure give him a real shot at a debut win


Read more: 18 LIV Golf Stars Turn to US Open Qualifying


2024 U.S. Open odds, field


Scottie Scheffler 4-1

Rory McIlroy 9-1

Xander Schauffele 10-1

Brooks Koepka 12-1

Jon Rahm 12-1

Ludvig Aberg 14-1

Viktor Hovland 18-1

Collin Morikawa 18-1

Bryson DeChambeau 20-1

Patrick Cantlay 22-1

Wyndham Clark 22-1

Joaquin Niemann 25-1

Cameron Smith 25-1

Max Homa 30-1

Justin Thomas 33-1

Cameron Young 35-1

Dustin Johnson 35-1

Jordan Spieth 35-1

Hideki Matsuyama 35-1

Shane Lowry 40-1

Sahith Theegala 40-1

Tom Kim 40-1

Tony Finau 40-1

Sungjae Im 40-1

Matt Fitzpatrick 40-1

Jason Day 45-1

Tommy Fleetwood 50-1

Min Woo Lee 50-1

Tyrrell Hatton 50-1

Brian Harman 55-1

Corey Conners 60-1

Sam Burns 60-1

Patrick Reed 60-1

Si Woo Kim 65-1

Justin Rose 65-1

Sepp Straka 70-1

Louis Oosthuizen 75-1

Abraham Ancer 75-1

Rickie Fowler 75-1

Adam Scott 75-1

Talor Gooch 75-1

Russell Henley 90-1

Daniel Berger 100-1

Keegan Bradley 100-1

Keith Mitchell 125-1

Ryan Fox 125-1

J.T. Poston 125-1

Billy Horschel 125-1

Tiger Woods 125-1

Sergio Garcia 125-1

Thomas Pieters 150-1

Kurt Kitayama 150-1

Phil Mickelson 150-1

Mito Pereira 150-1

Denny McCarthy 150-1

Harris English 150-1

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 150-1

Adam Schenk 175-1

Emiliano Grillo 175-1

Austin Eckroat 175-1

Robert MacIntyre 175-1

Marc Leishman 175-1

Adam Hadwin 175-1

Lucas Glover 200-1

Nick Taylor 200-1

Davis Riley 200-1

Mackenzie Hughes 200-1

Jason Kokrak 200-1

Harold Varner III 225-1

Seamus Power 225-1

Taylor Moore 250-1

Ben Kohles 250-1

Gary Woodland 250-1

Aaron Wise 250-1

Francisco Molinari 350-1

Joel Dahmen 350-1

Martin Kaymer 500-1

Bernhard Langer 750-1





Find more Golf Brands you would like:



David has deep connections in the golf equipment industry, having previously worked in sales and marketing roles for major golf brands. He leverages these relationships to provide readers with the inside scoop on the latest gear releases, as well as exclusive deals, discounts and coupon codes that help golfers save money on clubs, balls, apparel and accessories. Readers rely on his expertise to make informed purchasing decisions.

Get the Golfaq Newsletter

Subscribe to the Golfaq newsletter to stay informed about the latest developments in the world of golf. You'll receive updates on tournament news, new equipment releases, product reviews and coupons, head-to-head comparisons, and buying guides from our team of experienced golf journalists and industry experts.

By submitting your information you agree to the Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy